Backtesting lab
Which strategy actually held up?
Every settled selection is replayed in date order under the rules you set below. Nothing is re-scored and no losing bet is dropped — only the entry filters and the staking plan change.
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Strategy rules
Minimum model probability70%
Minimum expected valueNo filter
Maximum odds15.00
Starting bankroll£1,000
Staking plan
Kelly fraction0.25×
Markets included
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No settled bets match these rules
Loosen the probability, EV or market filters. An empty sample is shown as empty — it is never padded out with weaker selections.
Strategy comparison
Every preset replayed over the same settled history from £1,000, ranked by ROI.
| Strategy | Bets | Hit rate | Avg odds | Profit | ROI | Max DD | Risk-adj. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everything publishedEvery settled selection, flat £10 stakes. The control group. | 0 | — | — | £0.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| Singles 70%+Match-result singles at 70%+ model probability, quarter Kelly. | 0 | — | — | £0.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| Positive EV onlyAny market where the model priced an edge over the book. | 0 | — | — | £0.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| Elite 82%+Only the highest-conviction band, quarter Kelly. | 0 | — | — | £0.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| Beat the closing lineSelections taken at a better price than the market closed at. | 0 | — | — | £0.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| Singles, no accumulatorsExcludes multiples entirely — 2% of bankroll level stakes. | 0 | — | — | £0.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.00 |
A backtest is a description of the past, not a forecast. Sample sizes here are small, the best-performing threshold on one season is frequently not the best on the next, and every strategy shown includes its losing runs in full.